Over the past several days, multiple reports have emerged that various China-based third-party memory module makers have begun selling DDR5 DRAM sticks for enthusiasts based on DDR5 chips produced by the China-based ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). CXMT has never publicly announced its DDR5, so if it mass-produces enough DDR5 chips to sell to third-party module makers, this could have significant market implications — particularly if it begins dumping products on the market that undercut the standard pricing.
CXMT's DDR5 memory is believed to be produced using CXMT's G3 process, which has a line width of 17.5nm, reports ZDNet Korea, citing its sources. Experts questioned by the website estimate a production yield of approximately 80%, though they did not disclose details about which ICs were analyzed.
The first reports about CXMT's DDR5 SDRAM emerged in 2022, and it was expected that these ICs would be made using a 17nm-class DRAM process technology, so the rumors appear to have some basis. Analysts from TechInsights have listed CXMT memory on their tech roadmap, and they appear to believe that CXMT uses its G4 fabrication technology to make DDR5 SDRAM.
KingBank and Gloway recently started selling 32GB DDR5 modules based on DDR5 ICs labeled as 'domestic.' Although the manufacturer is not explicitly mentioned, this strongly suggests CXMT's involvement, as it is China's most advanced DRAM maker.
Back in mid-November, it was revealed that CXMT and Fujian Jinhua were selling DDR4 memory at a 50% discount, making it cheaper than reused DDR4 ICs and prompting large memory makers to lower their DDR4 output. Now that CXMT is mass-producing DDR5, the question arises whether the company will attempt to flood the market with cheap DDR5 chips to gain market share or focus on earning a premium and maximizing profits.
At this point, it is hard to say whether CXMT can flood the market with DDR5 SDRAM ICs. While its production capacity looks quite formidable, it remains unclear how much of that capacity can be allocated to the open market, as the primary goal of all China-based chipmakers is to address local demand in general and demand from government-controlled entities in particular. Additionally, sanctions from the U.S. and the Netherlands greatly limit CXMT's ability to boost production and market share.
In any case, the production of DDR5 memory by a Chinese DRAM maker could have a profound effect on the market. If CXMT takes market share away from Micron, Samsung, and SK hynix in China, those companies will be forced to redirect their DDR5 output elsewhere, increasing competition and driving down prices. This would be good news for end users but bad news for the DRAM maker oligopoly that has enjoyed an unspoken truce of sorts that largely avoids price wars.
